Variously known as chaos theory, complexity theory, the theory of complex systems, non-linear dynamical systems theory, quantum non-linear dynamical theory, uncertainty theory, this system of thinking is emerging as a way of understanding human behavior. With its beginnings in the mathematical sciences, some trace the "new science" (Capra,1996; Merry, 1995) of chaos theory to the systems tenets of Ludwig Von Bertalanffy in the 1940's and 50's. Unlike the Cartesian analytic tradition of cause and effect, of discrete parts that, upon analysis, reveal the structure of the whole, Von Bertalanffy stated that there are processes between parts, that to analyze one part is to analyze the whole. Von Bertalanffy proposed that there are linkages between parts and to understand the workings of the whole it was crucial to understand how the process or linkages worked. Quite simply, it was the analysis of the whole, rather than the analysis of the parts. It is analysis from a macro understanding; in order to understand the interconnectedness of a forest structure, it is necessary to view the trees as part of the overall forest, understanding that a tree by itself does not a forest make; many trees by themselves do not a forest make; it is the interaction or process among the trees that form the complexities of a forest (Brodnick, 1997). So, one aspect of chaos theory is the premise that the whole is more than the sum of its parts and that to understand the whole, it is necessary to understand the interconnectedness of the parts, knowing that even this understanding of parts interconnection can be insufficient for the understanding of the workings of the whole.

Having described them in mathematical terms, what application does the mathematics have? One of the features given prominence by Gleick and others is what has been dubbed "the butterfly effect." Lorenz, had discovered on his computer-simulated weather a remarkable development. One of his simulations was based on twelve variables, including, as Donahue (2000) said, non-linear relationships. Lorenz found if he started his simulation with values only slightly different from the original—the difference being one set were down to six decimal places and the second set down three places—then the "weather" produced by the computer soon veered wildly from the original. Where perhaps a slight perturbation might have been expected, there was, only after a brief period of recognizable similarity, a completely different pattern.

This means in a complex, non-linear system, a small change in the input could produce a huge change in the output. In Lorenz’s computer world, it was equivalent to a butterfly’s wing-beat causing a hurricane in another part of the world; hence the expression. The conclusion that can be drawn from this is, given the complexity of the forces and processes that go to determine the weather, it can never be predicted beyond a short period of time ahead. In fact, the biggest weather computer in the world, in the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting, does as many as 400 million calculations every second. It is fed 100 million separate weather measurements from around the world every day, and it processes data in three hours of continuous running, to produce a ten day forecast. Yet beyond two or three days the forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless. Chaos theory, then, sets definite limits to the predictability of complex non-linear systems

Generally speaking, people always wants to know one thing about new discoveries--what good are they? So what good is chaos theory?

Chaos theory is concerned with questions of order and disorder in nature. "The discovery hidden within the unpredictability of disorderly phenomena are deep structures of order central to chaos theory." (You, 1993).One of the key conceptual elements of Chaos theory is called sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Previously refereed to as the Butterfly Effect, it is the notion that a butterfly stirring its wings in Beijing can transform storm systems in Nevada. A small change in state at the beginning can have disproportionately enormous effects in the end. The behaviorist assumes cause and effect are more proportional. It makes it very difficult to predict outcomes if small unpredictable changes can have large effects on the system. This can be disastrous if ones point of reference is to control specific outcomes.

The advances in computer hardware and software in the Information Age continue to create new and innovative designs in technology based instruction. Today we have numerous authoring systems that have broadened the base of possible

instructional developers and allowed non-programmers, especially teachers, to create their own instructional programs. In the excitement to create useful, engaging instruction in a brand new medium, an important aspect of education is consistently overlooked. Although great care has been taken in the development of design strategies, needs assessment, and evaluations, instructional designers often fail to make learning theory the cornerstone of their creations. (Bartasis,1996)

What would seem to be most effective, however, would be to find a well-suited match between a particular type of technology based instruction and a learning theory. Our task in this disquisition is to discover the heuristic for instructional program development. We are "building" instructional programs and computer programs at every level of our educational system.

Educational systems in the Information Age must use technology-based models for planning, organizing and administering instructional programs. A comprehensive awareness and use of technology tools is an integral part of Instructional Program Development.

The University of Phoenix has in large measure, based its educational model on Knowles' theory of andragogy, a theory specifically designed for adult learning. Knowles emphasizes that adults are self-directed and expect to take responsibility for decisions. Adult learning programs must accommodate this fundamental aspect.

Andragogy makes the following assumptions about the design of learning: (1) Adults need to know why they need to learn something (2) Adults need to learn experientially, (3) Adults approach learning as problem-solving, and (4) Adults learn best when the topic is of immediate value. (Knowles, 1984).

In practical terms, andragogy means instruction for adults needs to focus more on the process and less on the content being taught. Strategies such as case studies, role playing, simulations, and self-evaluation are most useful. Instructors adopt a role of facilitator or resource rather than lecturer or grader.

Learning is...Behaviorism - change in overt behavior due to conditioning.

Cognitivism - programming a new rule for information processing.

Constructivism - personal discovery based on insight.

Instructional Strategies...

Behaviorism - present and provide for practice and feedback.

Cognitivism - plan cognitive learning strategies such as concept mapping, chunking, and metacognition.

Constructivism - provide for active, self-regulating, reflective learning.

Instructional Program Development...

Behaviorism - Relationships are highly structured and lineal

Cognitivism - Applies cognitive strategies to program development and sequencing

Constructivism - Develops instructional programs that are non linear, active and self paced

In the article "What can we learn from Chaos Theory? An alternative approach to instructional systems design,

Yeongmahn You shows us how chaos theory can provide the necessary paradigm shift to accommodate constructivism. His article explains how using the principles of chaos theory can provide us with a completely new perspective in thinking about instructional design.

Our "mechanistic, Newtonian world view" is inadequate to explain disorderly phenomena the same way behaviorism is inadequate to explain behavior. In applying chaos theory to instructional design, Yeongman You points out the weaknesses of the linearity of behavioristic learning systems. You ( 1993) believes learning is non-linear and dynamic: "The linear Instructional System Design (ISD) process imposed upon a dynamic system typically overlooks one or more messy variables that interfere at each stage of design and development Non-linear systems, on the other hand, assume mutual causality and holism."

According to Gleick (1988), Chaos is a science of process rather than a state of existence. It is a process of becoming as opposed to a condition of being. To understand the learning process as a dynamic system requires an alternate view of knowledge. "Knowledge must be understood as a dynamic system, constantly changing and reshaping. Human learners do not passively follow a pre-programmed package or react to external stimulus in a dynamic view of knowledge. Rather, they follow unpredictable patterns which are discontinuous and complex," (p.113).

Except for certain types of technical or procedural tasks, behavioristic principles decontextualize and oversimplify learning. We gravitate this way because we can not control all the multitudes of variables in the learning process. We ignore the ones we can't control the same way Descartes wanted to ignore the spiritual aspects of the mind. A major mental paradigm shift is needed to even acknowledge, let alone control, all these multitudes of variables. The constructivist perspective is heading in this direction in that it does not try to deny the existence of variables we can't control. We are heading back to relevant, contextual learning in a non-linear dynamic system, the way our tribal ancestors dealt with learning.

Emerging technologies will free University of Phoenix students from the artificial settings of the twentieth century. They will learn in the global community, not only from subject matter experts, but from elders, youngsters and peers. In his book, Being Digital, Nicholas Negroponte points out the untapped sources of knowledge already existing in our communities--our elders-- who will be increasingly wired into the Internet. Learners will not be locked in a completely artificial setting of one instructor and twenty-five homogeneous, mentally and chronologically equivalent students. A setting that only promotes "socialization" of peers with each other will never again be replicated in the real world after they leave school.

Theories of adult learning (e.g., Cross, Knowles, Rogers) emphasizing the importance of building upon the learner's

experience is also very relevant to a University of Phoenix education. The experiential theory of Kolb (1984) suggests the learning cycle consists of four primary stages: concrete experience, reflective observation, abstract conceptualization, and active experimentation. According to Kolb, individual differences in these stages give rise to learning styles.

It is seemingly lusus naturae, so many of the advocates of chaos theory, who are attempting to break with the ineffectual "linear" methodology and work out a new "non-linear" mathematics, (which is more in consonance with the turbulent reality of ever-changing nature), appear to be completely unaware of the only genuine revolution in higher education logic in two millennia—the dialectical logic elaborated by Knowles, Cross, and Kolb, and subsequently perfected on an operational and pragmatic basis by Sperling. How many errors, blind alleys and crises in higher education could have been avoided if the academy had been equipped with a methodology which genuinely reflects the dynamic reality of the adult learner, instead of conflicting with it at every turn!

The applications of chaos theory are infinite; seemingly random systems produce patterns of eerie understandable irregularity. From the Mandelbrot set to turbulence to feedback and strange attractors; chaos appears to be everywhere. Breakthroughs have been made in the past in the area of chaos theory, and, in order to achieve any more prodigious accomplishments in the future, they must continue to be made. Understanding chaos is understanding life as we know it.

What works in faculty development? And why does it work? And is there any theoretical basis which lies behind success or failure?

Here is an application on chaos theory which will interest anyone – a Dean, a course facilitator, a curriculum developer, and a Director of Academic Affairs - who has a responsibility for faculty development and who is interested in examining the assumptions which lie behind the work.

Can a chance remark in a hall-way lead to a greater change than a whole analysis of the training needs of a Campus? Is it more effective to encourage enthusiasts for new approaches or to work with those whose opposition and attitude is most challenging? When resources are tight, time is short and energy is rationed - where should you concentrate your efforts?

During the balance of this essay we will be providing examples, models and anecdotes of experience and attempt to identify the theoretical assumptions which lie behind experiences of success and difficulty in the context of faculty development.

Roy Gregory, with the University of Hertfordshire denotes a curiosity - the more change-making work he does, the more he recognizes that success and failure is unpredictable. He could work anywhere on the spectrum between personal counseling to change-making with a whole community. Why do some of the activities work well? And how should he define "well"? He is pretty sure that working through a formal program of objectives is a nonsense - so might

chaos theory helps?

Pete Sayers, University of Bradford, offers three ways of viewing the world: Chaos theory, gestalt and neuro- linguistic programming. If we view the world through metaphors, these three might enrich our stock of understandings. Chaos is not a hard theory and can be used in a metaphorical way to understand the instructional design and faculty development at the University of Phoenix. What metaphors do we actually use?

A tank, with liquid pouring in and out, with a sludge at the bottom. Some colleagues are moving, others need to be stirred up – the faculty developer as a stirrer.

Two liquids fusing together - intermingling, exploding - the faculty developer as a catalyst.

The catalyst under constraint - to release resources.

The blind leading the blind through a changing obstacle course.

A gadfly - freely circulating, stinging people (energizing, causing movement - could be violent or random). Or applying ointment.

Grit in the oyster - to form the pearl.

Horticulture and gardening: To water and fertilize certain plants to encourage them - but it is hard not to nurture weeds as well.

A tank, which bulldozes people under or out of the way.

Newtonian physics: The application of Newtonian physics to faculty development: That the application of the right amount of force, in the right place, at the right time, can effect the desired change, which is then measurable. (Much recent Adult Higher Education thinking and practice have been about force applied to achieve a desired result.) Preparing aims and objectives is often done to conceal the fact that something will happen, but we are not really sure what -superficially Newtonian, implicitly chaotic. If students have to live with insecurity, perhaps so should faculty.

Beware the pressures of monitoring in a Newtonian environment - if things do not succeed quickly, good outcomes might be damaged. A message from neuro-linguistic programming - "There is no failure - only feedback". We have to cope with making mistakes, we can learn more from failure than success, but we have to deal with the fear of failure.

Instability: Recent years have been very stressful, very challenging, very unstable - remember that in periods of instability, personal contact is one way of getting (and giving) support (the image of a General Faculty Meeting full of adjunct faculty standing on one leg and using each other to lean on!)

Turbulence: As water moves faster down a stream, as turbulence develops, at certain times, some of that water is moving backwards. Are any of our colleagues in this position?

Do students learn more or less what we teach them? No, they learn both more and less. One conclusion we may draw from this essay is how important it is to be driven by values, not methods.

Energy: Chaos can be energy which looks random close up but from a distance shows as a pattern. A "truth" derived from gestalt therapy is "go where the energy is", don't struggle to move what does not want to be moved.

Control: There is a paradox at the heart of notions of control. If you want to control something, you might have to let go of it. (Example -if you want to sustain a relationship with your teenage children ....)

A matrix of notions of control:

Directing - Controlling - Coaching - Delegating: On the two issues of Control and Involvement.

Using this matrix, a model for supervision might be to start with directing, progress through controlling and coaching, to end with delegation.

"Seagull" management: Fly in squawking and flapping, dump on someone beneath, fly out.

Order: One way of getting perspective and discovering order is by keeping a history, to enable colleagues to look back and see how far they have traveled, and in what direction. ("What's going well?" is a better question than "What's going wrong?". You will hear what's going wrong anyway, but it may be within a more productive context.)

Trust: The Student End of Course Survey ( SEOCS) suggests that there are very measurable outcomes. Management by Objectives suggests that a linear, mathematical model is appropriate. But people are the variables. Control mechanisms and monitoring devices translated from Newtonian models of nature to human relationships imply a lack of trust, whereas chaos theory implies trust. Let us assume that faculty is doing the job they are doing because they want to, and because they want to do it well. Let us trust our intuitions and those of our colleagues.

Instability: In the Mandlebrot set, it is the areas of instability that create the beautiful patterns and the variable colors. The plain areas are the stable areas. The areas of energy and change are the interesting and productive areas.

Fractals are fascinating chaotic properties of complex systems. They are the ordered patterns found among the disorder of a chaotic system. They are found at smaller and smaller scales throughout the wholeness of the system. They are repetitive and constant in the system. "The shape of the whole is similar to itself at all levels of scale" (Capra, 1996, p.138). They are wholes within the whole, so to speak.

In 1986, the publication of the Mandelbrot set in Scientific American signaled the dissemination of fractal geometry to a more diverse public than the mathematics community. The Mandelbrot set is a "complex mathematical object" (Capra, 1996, p.148) looking unlike any mathematical calculation seen heretofore. It is a stunning visual of swirls, paisleys, whirlpools, each repeating the same patterns over and over again. Yet, it is a whole; the Mandelbrot set is a discrete, easily identifiable entity. As its parts become magnified, the repeating patterns became visible and upon further and greater magnification, Mandlebrot sets contained within the larger Mandlebrot set can be identified. These smaller sets are fractals; repetitions of the whole, similar, yet not wholly identical. Another fractal image that might be easier to comprehend is that of a stick drawing of a fern that was illustrated by Capra in the 1996 book The Web of Life. By iterating, or making a simple straight line smaller or larger in repeating scales, a complex picture of a fern emerges and at any point in the fern's final shape, the point resembles the whole of the fern.

Obligations and enjoyment: The best attractor and energizer are to enjoy the job. So take all opportunities to do what your intuition shows you want to do while acknowledging the need to do what you should do. Should we work to protect our position or to eventually render ourselves redundant? One measure of success is when the complaints come in - "surfing" or riding the turbulence, coping with the rebound of energy.

In chaos terms, attractors can be thought of like magnets. As in magnetic pull, the system as a whole is attracted toward these forces. These forces give the system a certain direction and flow. Indeed, these attractors can be thought of as providing boundaries for the system. If I think of a metal pin being pulled toward a magnet, there are certain boundaries that beyond which the pin would not feel the attraction to the magnet. The magnitude or strength of the magnet determines the magnitude or strength of the boundaries. Note that it is the whole pin that is being attracted to the magnet, not just the pin components. So, while there may be discrepancies of parts from pin to pin, pins as a whole, and the wholes of pins, are attracted to magnets and the stronger the magnet, the stronger the attraction.

For top-sliced funding which has to be justified in institutional terms - remember to notice that different forms of work are needed for the three different levels of central or institutional change, of Faculty change, and of Departmental or School change.

Appraisal: Notice how hard it is to be open and honest in an appraisal scheme which is within a "Newtonian" model. Similarly faculty development does not mean we have to do something to these people. It would be better to try to create an environment in which openness and honesty is possible and in which people can "develop" themselves. Still, there are reasonable constraints owing to our accelerated model, and to our mission.

"Good Practice": From gestalt comes the idea that one of the most powerful ways of making an intervention is to model the process. So, let us just do that. But it has to be unconditional - not dependent on whether others are prepared to commit to changes in return. It is a form of action which can contradict the standard culture. There is no purpose in simply saying what is not happening - "Do as I do, not as I say".

Person or Position: Undoubtedly the position of the faculty developer within the structure matters and can help to determine what influence one might have. But the quality of our personal interactions matters more, whatever position we occupy within the structure. By creative personal relationships we can increase both our and our colleagues' ability to transform the structure.

Intuition: The combination of working through intuition and personal values on the one hand with caring for and respect for the staff on the other is both right and effective. We have to like our colleagues. Example: continue with a workshop even when only a few turn up; keep the energy developing; cover all of the course objectives; stay till the end; trust that something will come of it.

Stephen Hawking explains if we do discover a complete theory, it should in time be understandable in broad principle by everyone, not just a few scientists. Then we shall all, Adult Educators, philosophers, scientists, and just ordinary people, be able to take part in the discussion of the question of why it is we and the universe exist.

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